Iran: From Enemy State to Speculator’s Wildest Bet?

Iran: From Enemy State to Speculator’s Wildest Bet?

After Trump declared – for the 38th time – that an agreement had been made with Iran, it looks like it may have finally happened. What this means is yet to be properly ascertained, but it is promising. As a dyed-in-the-wool sceptic on all things political, I need to...
Are Markets Pricing Relief, Instead of Reality?

Are Markets Pricing Relief, Instead of Reality?

The past week we saw markets do what they always do when there is a sniff of peace in the air: stop worrying for five minutes, buy the usual favourites, and pretend the world has suddenly become sensible. Lovely idea. Shame about reality. The big story – once again –...
Trade the Rally, Don’t Marry It

Trade the Rally, Don’t Marry It

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ kept pushing into record territory, and yes, the headlines look lovely. New highs, AI enthusiasm, tech optimism, all the usual confetti. But let’s not kid ourselves. This is not some grand, broad, healthy bull market where every sector is...
Markets: Still Climbing, Still Wobbly

Markets: Still Climbing, Still Wobbly

Markets spent the past two months doing what markets often do when the world looks half-mad: they climbed the wall of worry, had a little look over the top, then remembered there was war, inflation, central banks, oil, politics, and plenty of nonsense still waiting on...
Sixty-Nine… Strangely Enough, Not My Favourite Number

Sixty-Nine… Strangely Enough, Not My Favourite Number

I turned 69 this week, which is an awkward number to announce in polite company and an even more awkward one to celebrate while watching these markets pretend they know what they’re doing. At my age, I’ve learned two things. First, never trust anyone with a microphone...