Peace, Panic and Expensive Dreams

Peace, Panic and Expensive Dreams

The markets have spent the past week doing what they do best: changing their minds every five minutes. One day we’re told the world is ending because oil tankers cannot get through the Strait of Hormuz. The next day we’re told peace is breaking out across the Middle...
Rates Matter, But War, Oil and Politics Matter More

Rates Matter, But War, Oil and Politics Matter More

Interest rates may be tradable, and God knows the markets love turning every central bank cough into a full-blown drama, but the bigger question is whether rates at current levels are genuinely restrictive enough to damage economic growth. There is always an obvious...
Iran: From Enemy State to Speculator’s Wildest Bet?

Iran: From Enemy State to Speculator’s Wildest Bet?

After Trump declared – for the 38th time – that an agreement had been made with Iran, it looks like it may have finally happened. What this means is yet to be properly ascertained, but it is promising. As a dyed-in-the-wool sceptic on all things political, I need to...
Are Markets Pricing Relief, Instead of Reality?

Are Markets Pricing Relief, Instead of Reality?

The past week we saw markets do what they always do when there is a sniff of peace in the air: stop worrying for five minutes, buy the usual favourites, and pretend the world has suddenly become sensible. Lovely idea. Shame about reality. The big story – once again –...
Trade the Rally, Don’t Marry It

Trade the Rally, Don’t Marry It

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ kept pushing into record territory, and yes, the headlines look lovely. New highs, AI enthusiasm, tech optimism, all the usual confetti. But let’s not kid ourselves. This is not some grand, broad, healthy bull market where every sector is...