Please note the political opinions expressed below are those of the author himself, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of JP Fund Services AS.
Weekly reports serve little purpose for speculative investors focused on hourly or minute-by-minute charts. They’re equally unhelpful when they simply echo what’s already circulating on LinkedIn and other promotional platforms.
However, reports like mine – written independently rather than to serve corporate objectives – aim to provide genuine value by encouraging thoughtful analysis beyond the daily noise that focuses on “what happened yesterday” rather than “what might happen tomorrow.”
Whether you subscribe to “the trend is your friend” or “HODL,” too much market commentary focuses on following what has already occurred rather than identifying potential anomalies that could catch investors off guard.
As commentators, our role is to help investors and speculators think critically about their positions and support them in growing their wealth and improving their daily market activity.
The Value of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis remains our most important tool. I encourage readers to review our Chartbook each week – while it doesn’t provide specific trading recommendations, it has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in identifying short-term and medium-term trend changes. Don’t just take my word for it; I invite you to examine past issues and compare our observations with subsequent market movements.
In my work, I naturally examine various charts to contextualize current valuations and prices. However, I prefer to focus on what decision-makers are saying and doing – actions that have the potential to shift market direction – and compare these against underlying market sentiment. This approach helps me uncover emerging anomalies and exploitable value changes.
The Evolution of Market Dynamics
Short-term speculation drives our industry. Professional organizations and platform providers generate revenue from trading volume. But I come from a different era, when brokers needed to provide genuine service to build their income, and from the days when algorithms were barely known.
In those days, markets didn’t move based on trends or fashion – we had no internet, let alone social media. I’ve had to adapt to new technology and learn how markets are influenced by “superstars”: both corporate giants (like BlackRock) and individuals who command significant media attention.
Many of these commentators provide valuable insights, but their views shouldn’t be taken at face value. Everyone has an agenda, and we cannot treat everything as gospel.
A Word on Market Manipulation
Consider this example: early last month, reports circulated widely that certain Bitcoin whales were encouraging investors to increase their cryptocurrency holdings. On the surface, this seemed fair enough – whales understand crypto markets. However, as I noted at the time, these “successful superstars” have a knack for encouraging others to buy precisely when they want to unload portions of their own positions at optimal prices.
The young cryptocurrency sector has seen numerous examples of such manipulation – or attempted manipulation – by seasoned players, but rest assured, this behaviour occurs across all markets.
The AI Investment Question
I can understand that Nvidia’s results have given comfort to investors and the broader market. However, my concern about this sector is the massive capital inflows it continues to attract, despite limited historical success to justify additional investment at current valuations.
I’m not questioning AI technology’s future – I’m questioning whether deploying more capital at current prices represents a prudent investment decision.
Having traded through multiple boom-and-bust cycles, including the dot-com bubble, common sense tells me that when everyone throws money at a new development, it’s only a matter of time before the bubble bursts. The technology will endure, but not everyone who invests at any price will profit. Consider yourselves warned.
Year-End Considerations
As we approach the end of another strong year for equities, it’s worth remembering that many superstar institutional traders will be looking to cash in on their positions and lock in the profits that determine their bonuses. We’ve already seen some of this activity in recent weeks, and I expect more may follow, particularly if valuations weaken further.
Looking Ahead
Personally, I’m somewhat concerned about next year, especially regarding more fashionable products. I prefer adopting a defensive stance until after the New Year. However, I’ll be watching the commodity sector closely, which I believe should gain momentum in 2026, even if equity markets and the economy falters.
The post You’ve Been Warned – A Contrarian Perspective first appeared on JP Fund Services.
The post You’ve Been Warned – A Contrarian Perspective appeared first on JP Fund Services.
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