In this week’s video, we cover previous analysis markups, the outcomes, and what we potentially have lining up this week.
Open trades
Currently no open trades.
Trades to watch this week: I’m only looking for oil BUYS this week around the $82-$83 mark. There’s nothing else lining up again for me at the minute in terms of swing trades.
Market Watch Key Points: Five Things You Need to Know
1. Payrolls day
US nonfarm payrolls for September are due at 8:30 AM ET. The signals so far lean firm: Revelio Labs private payrolls rose 56.9K against 40K revised prior, initial claims were 197K against 200K expected, continuing claims 1,701K against 1,730K, and the Chicago Fed unemployment nowcast held at 4.1%. Challenger job cuts eased to 43.3K from 52.9K.
2. The Fed is divided
Logan said the policy rate needs at least 50bps more and that several hikes would only reverse last autumn’s cuts. Jefferson said the Fed may need more time before its next move, Bowman sees no urgent need for more moves this year, and Kashkari is open minded on October with one more hike pencilled in for this year and another in 2027. Trump said rising rates are pretty bad.
3. Factory prices jump
ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5 against 55.0 expected (54.6 prior), but prices paid rose to 77.9 against 72.3 expected and 71.1 prior. New orders were 55.3 and employment 52.7. The S&P Global final manufacturing PMI was 55.9 against 57.0 expected.
4. Iran risks escalate
The WSJ reports a third carrier strike group, Marine ships and up to 10,000 more troops will arrive by the end of November, and that Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing then. Trump said the war will end soon one way or another and that Iran must sign a deal or cease to exist. A 2.5mln barrel supertanker was reportedly hit off Oman, and UKMTO received a report of a tanker struck by a projectile in Hormuz.
5. Diesel supply becomes a transatlantic issue
Sources said the US warned France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban. Wright, Bessent and Greer all called on Europe to release reserves, and Sefcovic spoke of a coordinated approach. The EU Energy Union Taskforce is due to meet today. The euro underperformed, partly on the franc’s strength.
Trend Watch
1. USD [BULLISH]:
Firmer on haven demand and choppy risk sentiment, holding gains into payrolls.
2. EUR/USD [BEARISH → NEUTRAL]:
Price action steadied after recent underperformance, with the diesel stock warning still a risk.
3. GBP/USD [BEARISH → NEUTRAL]:
Reclaimed 1.3200 after a bounce from a 3 month low, with limited recovery amid UK political uncertainty.
4. USD/JPY [BULLISH → NEUTRAL]:
Sideways near 158.00 as Japan’s surprise rise in unemployment and faster Tokyo CPI were digested.
5. Spot Gold [NEUTRAL]:
Swung between gains and losses as markets wait for the US jobs report.
6. Crude Oil [BULLISH]:
Supported by Iran tensions and possible US diesel export curbs despite the pause in the rally.
Managed Account
Ryan’s managed accounts are currently up 37% for the year, reflecting the effectiveness of a patient, research-driven approach to navigating global currency markets.
Bio
With over 9 years of experience in the foreign exchange markets, Ryan Mac is a professional, fundamentally driven swing trader focused on identifying high-conviction opportunities through a disciplined, low-risk approach.
Ryan’s trading decisions are built around real-world fundamentals, economic data, central-bank policy and geopolitical developments, rather than relying solely on technical price action. His objective is to understand why a market should move before positioning for the longer-term trend.
Risk management sits at the core of his strategy. Ryan typically risks no more than 1% per trade, prioritising capital preservation and consistency over aggressive returns.
Fundamentals. Discipline. Risk management. Long-term thinking.
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