Power Outages and Power Plays
So, I was sitting in the dark during Monday’s power “crisis” thinking, “Well, this is just perfect.” No clue what was happening to my open positions, and honestly, that’s not far off from how I’ve felt most days during the past month.
Look, I’m not going to start with another tired analysis of Trump’s tariff threats – we’ve all had our fill of those. But I will say this: 100 days in, and the guy has managed to leave his fingerprints on every market imaginable. One day you think you’ve got it all worked out, then – BOOM – overnight 180-degree turn, and suddenly you’re on the wrong side of a trade. Been there, done that, got the bruises to prove it.
April was a real stinker for me. I gave the markets some dough back, mostly because I got sloppy with my discipline. No point sugar-coating it. You mess up, you pay up, you learn – then you move on and try not to make the same mistake again – or at least not for a few more months.
May Days Ahead: Sell or Double Down?
Here comes May, and right on cue, that old market chestnut “sell in May and go away” is making the rounds again. Tempting, sure, but timing is everything. This equity rally since Trump dangled that 90-day trade negotiation carrot has been nothing short of impressive. I am still tempted to short somewhere. But where, who really knows in this circus?
The real puzzle for me has been watching European equities rally and Euro and Sterling rallying so strongly against the dollar. Wasn’t expecting that. Not even a little bit. But as my old mentor used to say, “The market is never wrong – your interpretation of it might be, but the price is the price.” Hard to argue with that, even when it makes zero sense.
Meanwhile, economists are falling over themselves to predict recession across pretty much everywhere. Hard to disagree when you look at the underlying data. The trillion-dollar question becomes: where do you park your cash when everything looks shaky?
Ukraine: Peace Talks and Wall Street Walks
Let’s be real about Ukraine for a minute. If this supposed halt in hostilities actually sticks – and that’s a massive “if” – markets will rally. Good news is good news, right?
But here’s what nobody’s talking about: sure, peace would be tremendous for Ukrainian citizens (obviously), and a windfall for Black Rock and those trillion-dollar monsters who have already got their hands on reconstruction contracts. But don’t expect it to magically refill the pockets of European and American taxpayers who have been funding the war for the past few years.
That bill is coming due regardless, and we’ll be paying it off for a generation. The “peace dividend” might look great on a quarterly earnings call, but the economic hangover isn’t going away anytime soon.
Where to Hide When Everything’s on Fire
So where do you put your dough when the shit hits the fan? Gold? The old reliable is having its moment again. Bitcoin? The youngsters still swear by it, despite the wild swings that would give most traditional investors heart palpitations. But beyond the usual suspects, what’s left?
You could have a punt on some up-and-coming AI company, I suppose. But let’s not kid ourselves – most of us aren’t smart enough (or lucky enough) to pick the next Microsoft from the pile. Remember the late ’90s? I do. For every Amazon, there were a hundred Pets.coms. Same story with crypto – thousands of altcoins, most now worth less than the electricity it took to mint them. It’s a glorified casino unless you’ve got insider knowledge (which I certainly don’t).
My Two Cents (Which Might Be Worth Even Less)
Look, I’m not pretending to have all the answers. If April taught me anything, it’s humility. But a few things worth considering:
First, stick to your discipline, for God’s sake. I didn’t, and my portfolio paid the price. When Trump tweets at 3 AM and reverses course on tariffs, you don’t want to be overexposed.
Second, momentum is momentum until it isn’t. Ride it while it lasts but keep one hand on the exit door.
Third, maybe – just maybe – it’s time to start tiptoeing back toward some boring old safe havens, consumables and staples. Not all at once, mind you. But piece by piece.
Fourth, if you’re diving into AI or other trendy sectors, pick specific companies with actual revenue and sensible valuations. The “throw money at the theme” approach is for mugs and fund managers who are chasing the “big one” with other people’s money.
Finally, keep some powder dry. When this recession that everyone’s predicting actually hits, there will be bargains galore for those with liquidity.
The market in 2025 reminds me of that old Chinese curse – “May you live in interesting times.” Well, times are certainly interesting. The conventional playbook is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. Flexibility, caution, and opportunism seem like the only sensible approach right now.
But what do I know? I spent Monday scratching my head and praying during a power outage. Maybe that’s actually the perfect metaphor for investing in the age of Trump.
The post Trump’s First 100 Days: What the Hell Just Happened? first appeared on JP Fund Services.
The post Trump’s First 100 Days: What the Hell Just Happened? appeared first on JP Fund Services.
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