The only thing that truly rockets in times like these is uncertainty, and that’s the one asset nobody really wants to hold.
As you read this, I’m in the Vatican – yes, the Vatican – being preached to rather than doing the preaching for once. The wife wanted a few days away, and I thought, why not? Although I’ll admit, I’ve been keeping one eye on the markets and the other on the departure board, just in case geopolitics decides my return ticket is optional. That, in itself, sums things up rather nicely.
Everything we do in this environment carries an extra layer of risk. Not the neat, measurable kind we like to kid ourselves we understand – but the messy, headline-driven, knee-jerk variety. Now, as investors and speculators, we’re no strangers to risk. We live with it, we price it, we trade it. Depending on our appetite, we either sit on our hands or lean into it, looking for that extra return. But let’s be clear – there’s a world of difference between calculated risk and blind punting.
And right now, there’s an awful lot of blind punting going on.
I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when markets start reacting to every tweet, every rumour, every half-baked “breaking news” headline, discipline goes out the window. Traders start wetting their fingers and sticking them in the air, calling it strategy. It isn’t. It is guesswork dressed up as conviction.
Add to that the torrent of biased information – on all sides – and you’ve got a perfect storm of confusion. One minute you’re told the world’s ending, the next it’s all under control. Truth is, nobody really knows. And if they tell you they do, they’re either lying or selling something.
Now here’s the bit the Old Man keeps coming back to – this isn’t new. Strip away the noise, and war markets have always behaved in broadly the same way. Spikes, reversals, overreactions, and then – eventually – reality. Which is why, when the so-called experts start lining up on the television, I tend to switch it off. The charts don’t shout. They don’t speculate. They just reflect what’s actually happening with money on the table.
Price is truth. Always has been.
Volatility, of course, is where we earn our keep – but it’s also where people get carried out. For those who understand it, it’s opportunity. For those who don’t, it’s a very expensive lesson. And I’ll say this bluntly – if you don’t know where you’re getting out before you get in, you shouldn’t be in at all.
That’s where diversification and experience come into play. I’m constantly scanning across markets. I’ve traded just about everything over the years, and I’ve got no emotional attachment to any one asset. If my usual playground becomes too wild – even for me – I’ll go elsewhere. There’s always another market setting up, always another opportunity forming. You just need the patience to wait for it.
Technical analysis, for all its critics, remains one of the few tools that isn’t swayed by hysteria. It’s grounded in behaviour, probability, and history – not opinion. Get your levels right, define your risk, and accept when you’re wrong. Do that consistently, and the winners tend to take care of themselves.
Last week, we talked about markets being driven by headlines rather than fundamentals – and, frankly, not much has changed. But we also looked at areas slightly removed from the immediate blast radius – non-ferrous metals, certain agricultural markets. The logic was simple: less direct exposure to geopolitical chaos, less emotional pricing.
That view still holds. Prices in many of these areas remain suppressed, largely on fears of weaker global demand. But from where I’m sitting, a fair chunk of that negativity is already baked in. Which means the risk/reward is starting to tilt the other way. Not a guarantee – nothing ever is – but enough to keep them firmly on the radar.
Now, oil. You can’t ignore it, and it would be a bit cowardly to try. The potential for sharp upside spikes is still very much alive. Friday’s weakness? No surprise at all. When you’ve got a weekend full of unknowns, the last thing many traders want is exposure. Especially the fast-money crowd – they’ll take profit and run every time.
There was talk of Iran softening its stance – enough to shake a few weak hands out. But let’s be honest, the idea that this was all going to be neatly resolved over a weekend always felt optimistic at best. The fact it went nowhere doesn’t shock me in the slightest.
Could oil rip higher again? Of course it could. Does that mean I’m piling in? Not a chance – not without confirmation. I’ve survived long enough in this business by not needing to catch every move. If you feel the urge to have a punt, fine – but understand, you’re trading uncertainty, not value.
And that brings me back to where I started.
I’m in the Vatican. I’ll light a candle – not for divine market timing, because I’ve learnt the hard way that doesn’t exist – but for global peace and a return to normality. For some calm in a very noisy world. And, yes, for all of you reading this, whatever your belief, who are navigating markets that are being pushed and pulled by forces none of us can control.
Because in times like these, it’s not about being a hero.
It’s about staying in the game long enough to take advantage when the madness settles – and believe me, it always does.
Please note the political opinions expressed above are those of the author himself, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of JP Fund Services AS.
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