for a bit of suntanning, when my phone started to ping.
Initially, I thought it was my stop being hit at 1.1020 on my short EURUSD position, but nope, I dodged that bullet. The “ping” was actually informing me that the 4800 puts I’ve been discussing over the past few weeks had doubled overnight. Wow! What a relief.
I also bought a small position in BTC at 50,000 – something I’m not sure I needed to do. It was just a cheeky order I left in, at a level I picked only because of last week’s 50-year anniversary. (By the way, thanks everyone for your kind messages.)
I know there’s been some criticism of my stance on taking risks off the table over the holiday period, but the prudence of this decision has proven valuable, with few of my readers suffering the dreaded margin calls when the markets collapsed.
The talking heads are out in force today, repeating stories we’ve been discussing for over a month, but their sudden awakening is hardly news to readers of my reports.
We discussed the need for the yen to strengthen almost two months ago. Sure, we didn’t expect such a strong rally in such a short period, but a large correction was clearly needed. Since pointing out that Nvidia’s value was too high, it was obvious that tech stocks, the so-called Magnificent Seven, were bound to drag equities lower at some point.
It’s fair to say that while we suggested taking risks off the table, we didn’t strongly promote going short. But the most important thing over the past few weeks is that we weren’t on the wrong side of the markets and didn’t get hurt when the shit hit the fan!
I’m sure a lot of people will claim they made a lot of money since last week, and when you listen to the talking heads—many of whom were bullish right up to Monday morning—they will say they all expected the collapse. But the truth is, there were a lot more margin calls being issued on Tuesday morning than checks!
Suddenly, everyone is an expert on Japanese carry trades, but the only real expert seems to be that other old man at Berkshire Hathaway, who dumped half his shares in Apple without anyone noticing.
Speaking of experts, I find it quite ironic that the renowned expert on cloud computing and AI, Kamala Harris, was confirmed as the Presidential candidate via a “virtual vote” on the day the shit hit the fan. (If anyone wants to explain to me what a virtual vote is, please drop me an email.)
I see the talking heads are now calling this drop a “politics” trade. Thanks for enlightening us all!
Again, as we’ve been discussing, no matter who the next President of the USA is, the American debt is going to be a major problem. Neither Kamala’s spending on her socialist agenda nor Trump’s expected tax cuts are going to help solve the issue of US debt.
My overview has not changed because of this week’s activity.
With risk off the table, most readers should not have been hurt by this drop and can, therefore, position themselves to take advantage of the bargain prices we’ll see over the next month or so, making a nice bit of money towards the end of the year. There’s no need to panic-buy, but you should do some research and look for levels to start buying, especially commodities, as the holiday period winds down.
While I’m not overly surprised by the recent action, I have been quite impressed by the resilience of the Euro. Living in Euroland, I really do not like the outlook, but the EU seems to revel in keeping its head down when the shit hits the fan, staying out of the spotlight, which for now keeps it out of harm’s way.
While the focus is on the American election, the Japanese carry trade, and the basket case that my homeland, the UK, has become, European problems are getting little attention. There always seems to be a bigger story than what’s happening in Europe, be it Bitcoin or the BRICS challenge to the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency.
While I dodged a bullet on Monday with my EURUSD position, by the time this report is published, it wouldn’t surprise me if my stop does get hit. But hey-ho, we will still have plenty of powder left to take advantage of the exciting opportunities coming down the road.
And I’ve got time to try and top up that suntan.
See ya!
The post There I was, about to hit the beach… first appeared on JP Fund Services.
The post There I was, about to hit the beach… appeared first on JP Fund Services.
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