UK 5GW Target for Green Hydrogen Transport Infrastructure
The UK is making progress in its green hydrogen journey, but there is a long road ahead. Current hydrogen production is dominated by blue hydrogen (derived from natural gas with carbon capture). While green hydrogen projects are emerging, these remain in their infancy.
Current Landscape
- As of today, green hydrogen production is limited to pilot projects, such as ITM Power’s electrolyser facilities in Sheffield and several initiatives tied to industrial hubs like Teesside and Humberside.
- National refuelling infrastructure for hydrogen-powered transport is sparse, with fewer than 20 operational hydrogen refuelling stations across the UK.
Plans for Growth
By 2030, the UK aims to scale green hydrogen production to 5 GW, supported by investments such as the £240 million Net Zero Hydrogen Fund and public-private partnerships in industrial clusters. This would equate to approximately 120,000 kg of green hydrogen per day.
However, this ambitious target depends on the timely delivery of large-scale electrolyser projects, sufficient renewable energy to power these systems, and robust distribution networks. Without these, the vision risks falling short.
Hydrogen Demand in Transport by 2030
Hydrogen’s role in transport decarbonisation is clear: its high energy density makes it ideal for heavy-duty and long-range applications. But how far can 5 GW of green hydrogen stretch across different vehicle categories?
Estimated Hydrogen Demand Per Vehicle
- HGVs: Typically consume 40 kg of hydrogen per day, based on 400 km of daily mileage.
- LGVs: Require 2.25 kg of hydrogen daily for an average usage of 150 km.
- Passenger Cars: Use 0.5 kg of hydrogen per day for local driving needs (50 km/day).
- NRMM: Construction and agricultural machinery consume 30 kg of hydrogen daily due to their high energy demands.
In reality, a balanced adoption scenario would likely distribute green hydrogen more strategically, favouring sectors where hydrogen has the greatest impact.
A Realistic Adoption Scenario for 2030
Given the challenges in scaling production, infrastructure, and vehicle uptake, a more conservative breakdown for 2030 might look like:
- HGVs: 1,500 vehicles (40 kg/day each to 60,000 kg/day total).
- LGVs: 20,000 light goods vehicles (2.25 kg/day each to 45,000 kg/day total).
- Passenger Cars: 20,000 vehicles (0.5 kg/day each to 10,000 kg/day total).
- NRMM: 1,000 units (30 kg/day each to 30,000 kg/day total).
This projection prioritises HGVs (Heavy Goods Vehicles) and NRMM (non-road mobile machinery), where hydrogen offers unique advantages over battery alternatives, such as rapid refuelling and high payload capacities. Meanwhile, LGVs and cars may see slower adoption due to the dominance of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in these segments.
The 145,000 kg/d represents about 50% of the estimated 300,000 kg/d of green hydrogen in 2030.
Infrastructure Bottlenecks: A Roadblock to Growth
Achieving these targets will require significant investment in hydrogen refuelling and distribution infrastructure. Currently, the UK’s hydrogen network falls far short of what is needed to support even modest adoption.
Refuelling Stations
- By 2030, the UK would need at least 150–200 strategically located hydrogen refuelling stations to service key freight routes and urban hubs.
- The estimated cost for this expansion ranges from £400–600 million, highlighting the scale of investment required. (Haush analysis of the infrastructure costs).
Renewable Energy and Electrolysers
- Producing green hydrogen at scale requires abundant renewable energy. The UK’s expanding offshore wind capacity provides a strong foundation, but, it must be dedicated to electrolysis rather than grid supply. The UK government will be prioritising green energy projects that are ready to be built and financed rather than the incumbent queuing system.
- The UK’s domestic electrolyser manufacturing capacity, led by companies like ITM Power, must also scale rapidly to meet demand.
Key Challenges Ahead
1. Delayed Production Projects
Despite ambitious plans, delays in electrolyser deployment or renewable energy availability could hinder the realisation of 5 GW by 2030.
2. Comparing the Costs of Diesel and Green Hydrogen for Transportation
With the growing shift toward sustainable energy sources, green hydrogen is gaining attention as a clean alternative to traditional fossil fuels. However, to understand its viability, it’s crucial to compare its cost to that of diesel when used for the same distance and factoring in energy efficiency.
Energy and Efficiency
- Diesel ICEs: is 30% efficient, delivering 10.74 MJ of useful energy per litre.
- FCEVs (hydrogen): is 60% efficient.
- Hydrogen ICEs: is 40% efficient.
Equivalent Energy
- FCEVs need 0.149 kg of hydrogen.
- Hydrogen ICEs need 0.224 kg of hydrogen.
Cost Comparison
- In FCEVs, hydrogen must cost ≤ £10.07/kg.
- In Hydrogen ICEs, ≤ £6.70/kg.
3. Market Readiness
Fleet operators, particularly in freight and logistics, remain cautious due to the lack of refuelling infrastructure and concerns over the total cost of ownership for hydrogen vehicles as explored in an earlier analysis by Haush.
4. Global Competition
The UK faces stiff competition from Europe, where countries like Germany and the Netherlands are building hydrogen ecosystems at a faster pace, supported by larger public subsidies.
A Strategic Path Forward
The UK’s ambition to produce 5 GW of green hydrogen by 2030 is bold but achievable if the government, industry, and investors act decisively. Realising this vision requires a coordinated effort to:
- Scale up electrolyser capacity and renewable energy generation.
- Rapidly expand hydrogen refuelling infrastructure.
- Focus adoption on heavy-duty sectors like HGVs and NRMM, where hydrogen holds a clear advantage.
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