The End of a Weird but Wonderful Year

As we approach the festive season, I want to take a moment to wish each of you a very Merry Christmas. For those who’ve had an exceptional year, that joy is a given—but it’s worth extending holiday cheer to everyone, regardless of the numbers on the balance sheet.

This year has undoubtedly been a remarkable one for speculators and investors alike. Even if, like me, you missed out on the full extent of the equity rally, there’s been no shortage of opportunities across markets. Hopefully, some of those gains will help you put smiles on the faces of your loved ones as you gather over the coming days.

Of course, not every trade went according to plan—this is the nature of our business. I’ll admit, the rally in EUR/USD in the summer, coinciding with Kamala Harris’s entry into the political spotlight, caught me off guard. Yet, overall, we’ve been fortunate to land on the right side of the markets most of the time when we’ve taken the leap and put our capital at risk.

There were a few missteps along the way, notably my speculative Cocoa put options, which didn’t quite pan out. However, those losses were more than offset by well-timed trades in a basket of commodities, leaving the overall picture firmly in the green.

Undoubtedly, one of the standout decisions was biting the bullet and was going long on Bitcoin back in early August. Sticking with my long-held Gold positions has also been rewarding, underscoring the value of conviction in one’s strategy. Most satisfying, however, has been our ability to navigate speculative positions with precision—entering and exiting without lingering too long, which is always a mark of disciplined trading.

I’ll keep this report brief, as I know most of you have other priorities during this time of year. However, I would like to highlight the tremendous growth and progress we’ve seen from trademakers, SGT and JPFS in 2024. With new products in the pipeline, they’re worth keeping on your radar in the months ahead. Be on the lookout for updates—there’s a lot to be excited about.

While I’m not in the habit of making end-of-year forecasts, I, like many of you, will be watching closely as the new crop of analysts and commentators share their predictions. It’s always fascinating to see which bold calls might lead to an “I told you so” moment in the year to come.

Looking ahead to 2025, my hope—and expectation—is that we see a world that prioritizes peace and stability. Geopolitical tensions need to be minimized so our leaders can focus on fostering economic growth, which remains sorely needed.

There are certainly challenges on the horizon. The situation in Syria continues to weigh heavily, and I’m deeply concerned about the economic outlook for Europe, particularly my beloved UK. We’ll have to address these issues as they unfold.

The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.25% rate cut has been welcomed by many, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see global inflation pick up in 2025—especially in Europe. This side of the Atlantic, there’s little to feel overwhelmingly bullish about, though there is potential for some peaceful resolutions to the current Ukraine war.

China’s efforts to stimulate internal growth will also be worth watching closely. And as for the impact of U.S. tariffs, it’s a mixed bag—there are both benefits and drawbacks. That said, a more level playing field for American industries isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

As an Englishman living abroad, my primary concern remains the UK. The current socialist government’s policies appear intent on driving the economy into the ground, which is troubling. While I no longer have direct exposure to the UK economy, my thoughts are with friends and family back home.

Whatever happens next year, one thing is certain: opportunities will abound for those of us in this ever-evolving, sometimes unpredictable, but always fascinating industry. Markets will do what they do best—present challenges and rewards for those ready to seize them.

As we embrace the holiday season, let’s take a moment to reflect on our successes, learn from our setbacks, and prepare ourselves for the opportunities that lie ahead in 2024.

Raise a glass, enjoy the festivities, and let’s look forward to a prosperous and exciting New Year.

Merry Christmas to you all!