I don’t know about the crystal ball you use to analyse the markets for opportunities, but mine is shrouded in so many political events that it really is hard to see something to jump on.
I get criticized for writing about political events when I should be writing about what the markets are doing and might do in the future, and I do try to stick to ideas and opportunities when they are there. However, events over the past few weeks cannot be ignored.
If I wanted to go down the road of conspiracy theorist, then I would say that they tried to get rid of Trump, and when that failed, they got rid of Joe Biden. Running a country is like running a company. If the CEO doesn’t deliver, then he has to go. The difference is the objective. A company wants money and growth; a political party wants power and influence.
We often see CEOs getting the boot or stabbed in the back by shareholders, but rarely do we see this so blatantly in the political arena. These are unprecedented times indeed.
Vis-à-vis how these events will affect our markets remains to be seen, but there is no question that we are looking at some very nervous markets, with both shorts and longs trying to work out what they are going to do.
Moreover, with all this happening at a time (last weeks of July/beginning of August) when most players are in holiday mode and market volumes are low, bravery will favour the bold over the coming weeks.
Let’s face it. Most people expected Trump to beat Biden, and that we would see a more inward-looking America, that would be pumping out oil, bringing the deficit down, and becoming a much more business-friendly nation. But with a new opponent, a Trump win is no longer guaranteed.
The media seems happy about this, as you would expect. But I have concerns about both a Trump win or, as we are told, a Harris win, but for different reasons.
There is no question that the gap in policy objectives between Trump and Harris is the widest I can remember, and this definitely makes long-term betting difficult. But as someone who prefers the Trump policies, I am concerned about him considering Larry Fink for the job of Treasury Secretary.
I appreciate that many, especially crypto traders, would like to see Larry Fink get a powerful position in the Trump administration, but that would make him an incredibly powerful man—as if he is not one of the most powerful people on the planet already. Moreover, God only knows how Trump will work with the person who has imposed ESG policies on the world.
The road ahead is littered with many short-term opportunities and long-term potholes, and investors need to be smart and very agile to navigate through both.
My advice is for short-term traders to keep relying on short-term charts, and stay disciplined, i.e., limit losses as much as you can. For longer-term investors, I would reduce the time span on what you are looking at until the road ahead is clearer.
I suggested this a few weeks back, before Trump was shot and Biden resigned, so it is not exactly a new idea. That said, it certainly is more confusing today, especially for longer-term players.
My own positions have changed little over recent weeks. I still have my gold, and although it might look a bit toppy, I am not going to get rid of it. I am still long dollar against the Euro, which has been worrying over recent days, but until it breaks strongly out of the diamond pattern that I have been discussing, I will stick with it. I am considering placing a stop-loss order if the cross closes above 1.1050.
As I have been expecting, commodity prices are easing, which are worth monitoring. I like corn at current levels, and if I see aluminium and copper a little lower, I aim to get my feet wet and buy a little of both. This is not a recommendation, but an indication of where I am looking for opportunities. You must do your own research.
On a personal note. This summer, I will be spending a lot of time up on my mountain, finishing my off-grid cabin, which I had to abandon last year, before my back operation. Horses for courses and all that, but with so much unknown ahead, making money and investing in something where you can become self-sufficient certainly sounds like a good insurance policy.
The post So, What Are We Gonna Do Now? first appeared on JP Fund Services.
The post So, What Are We Gonna Do Now? appeared first on JP Fund Services.
The post So, What Are We Gonna Do Now? first appeared on trademakers.