With so much happening in the world – especially now that Trump is back in office – the outlook is looking much brighter.
The physical gold we bought three years ago at €1,700 per ounce is now over €2,800, and the trend remains positive. We managed to buy BTC at $50,000 and sold it for over $103,000. In other commodities, we have had excellent profits in soybeans, wheat, and copper, and we secured a few dollars in the oil market. Additionally, we made a small but worthwhile gain from a quick punt in cable.
January and the beginning of February have set us up nicely for the year. Yes, we anticipate giving back a little here and there, but we are already playing with other people’s money. At the time of writing, we have minimal risk in the market—except for our buried bullion.
On a personal note, I finally managed to buy an adjacent piece of land next to my small farm, which serves as my peaceful retreat—my happy place – is now bigger.
I must admit that over the past few years, I have been quite pessimistic about the future, and this outlook has inevitably seeped into my reports. However, with a new leader in the White House whose policies I fully support, I am feeling far more optimistic about what lies ahead.
That said, don’t misunderstand me—markets will rise, and markets will collapse. I would be very surprised if Trump’s policies do not trigger some painful reactions, particularly in equity markets. However, as someone who is just as comfortable going short as I am going long, every significant move presents an opportunity to generate solid profits.
Being in Europe will remain challenging for some time. While changes are occurring, improvements are unlikely to happen as swiftly as they are in America. Most European countries—sadly, with the exception of the UK—have acknowledged the challenges that come with being EU members and are making efforts to turn things around.
I am writing this on a Tuesday morning because I have some land to fence off later in the week. I am also considering shorting both the FTSE and DJIA. I’m not going all in just yet, but I do want to start building a short position. I believe Trump’s tariffs will negatively impact equities over the coming month, and we may well see a rise in inflation.
I am well aware that Trump has made oil production a cornerstone of his fiscal plans. However, saying you want to reduce energy costs and actually making it happen are two very different things—even if you are Donald Trump. Oil prices are currently at strong support levels, and while I hope we could break below $65 per barrel, that would be a significant challenge. He will need cooperation from other producers, which may not be so readily available.
For those of us in Europe, even if the war in Ukraine ends and oil prices ease, our governments and the EU will likely increase energy taxes to compensate for the aid being sent to countries that Trump has stopped funding. As I have stated many times—and as we have seen firsthand in the past few weeks—America can execute a complete policy U-turn when leadership changes. In contrast, Europe’s system is designed to maintain a fixed trajectory, making course corrections nearly impossible. If the EU is heading for the rocks, it won’t stop until it crashes and sinks!
This is why I am confident that, sooner rather than later, we will see EUR/USD trading below parity.
As you can see, we continuously strive to diversify the products and sectors in which we speculate, always seeking fresh opportunities to exploit wherever they may arise. I strongly advise traders to spread their risk beyond their comfort zones or their perceived areas of expertise.
I understand that many of us were pigeonholed early in our careers. Some of us started on the FX desk, worked for a stockbroker, or entered the crypto industry. As our knowledge of a particular sector grew, we stayed within that niche, where we felt most comfortable and valuable.
However, the downside of this approach is that focusing on the same asset class day after day can make our perspective stale and ultimately affect our performance.
Manage and diversify your risk. It really does make cents!
The post Reasons to Be Cheerful! first appeared on JP Fund Services.
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