With just one month remaining until the U.S. election, the markets are bracing for what could be a turning point.
Make no mistake – this is not just another American election. It could very well be one of the most significant in history, with implications not only for the U.S. but for the global economy as well. The outcome remains uncertain, and this makes the current environment particularly challenging for investors.
Recently, I’ve decided to close most of my positions in the commodity markets, securing solid profits from the metal and grain trades I’ve held over the past month. While I remain friendly towards these markets, I prefer to stay relatively neutral until the election dust settles. I’m not particularly bearish; I’m simply opting for caution, given the heightened unpredictability we’re likely to face in the coming weeks.
At my stage in life, I no longer have the agility I once had to respond swiftly to rapid market shifts. As we approach the election, the markets will increasingly favor those with the flexibility to move quickly. That said, younger traders, equipped with faster reactions and fewer long-term constraints, will likely find more opportunities to profit from short-term volatility.
Personally, I still hold positions in gold and Bitcoin – both of which I see as potential safe havens during this volatile period. However, for the time being, I plan to observe how the more nimble players in the market navigate these choppy waters, and I’ll reassess my strategy once the election outcome becomes clearer.
My weekly commentary typically focuses on trades and ideas that can be followed over time, but right now, caution is key. That said, there will be ample short-term opportunities across various sectors in the run-up to the election. Again, Young professionals should seize these opportunities, working diligently to exploit the market’s fluctuations.
For the more experienced traders among us, our objective remains the same: generate consistent returns month over month, year over year, and recognize when market conditions align with our trading strategies. For those who rely heavily on technical analysis and strictly adhere to stop-loss orders, election outcomes or geopolitical tensions are secondary; your strategies are purely price-driven, allowing you to continue as normal. However, if you incorporate fundamental analysis into your decision-making, this is certainly a time to exercise greater caution.
I touched on this in last week’s commentary regarding the Middle East conflict and its impact on oil markets. While the conflict has provided a floor for oil prices, we have not seen the explosive price movement many speculators anticipated. The reason is simple—despite the geopolitical unrest, there is still no shortage of oil production. For short-term traders, this volatility has provided opportunities, but longer-term investors should remain wary until the situation stabilises.
Ultimately, much of the market’s future is in the hands of the American voter. Until the election results are clear, uncertainty will prevail. Many countries outside the Western world, as well as some Western governments, would prefer to see Kamala Harris win, viewing her as a less forceful and more malleable leader than Trump, whose MAGA view is seen as less appealing for non-Americans.
However, voting against someone, rather than for someone could back-fire.
In the UK recent elections, we saw voters expressing their dissatisfaction with the Conservatives, rather than a support for the Labour Party. Many British voters are now suffering from buyer’s remorse – something that may also play out in the U.S.
For investors, navigating these turbulent times requires a disciplined approach. It’s crucial to diversify your exposure to risk as much as possible. As you know, I’ve been advocating for holding physical gold as part of a diversified portfolio for the past three years. Over that period, gold has appreciated by more than 30%, underscoring its value as a defensive asset in uncertain times.
If you’re considering adding to your gold holdings or entering the market, I would recommend looking into a new physical gold product recently introduced by trademakers. It’s an interesting option and worth investigating as part of a balanced strategy.
The post One month to the US election first appeared on JP Fund Services.
The post One month to the US election appeared first on JP Fund Services.
The post One month to the US election first appeared on trademakers.