Fueling the Future:
In the race to decarbonize the skies, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has become the cornerstone of the aviation industry’s green revolution. Unlike conventional jet fuel, SAF is produced from renewable or waste materials and offers a dramatic reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the aviation industry under increasing pressure to meet ambitious climate targets, the spotlight is on SAF: how it’s made, who’s producing it, and whether it can scale to meet the growing demand.
The Science Behind SAF
SAF isn’t a single type of fuel but rather a category encompassing various production methods and feedstocks. Each pathway brings its own strengths and challenges.
The most established method, Hydro processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), uses fats, oils, and greases like used cooking oil or animal fat as feedstocks. Through a process of hydrogenation and refining, these materials are transformed into jet-grade fuel. HEFA dominates today’s SAF market thanks to its proven technology and relatively straightforward production.
Meanwhile, the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process tackles the problem of agricultural and municipal waste. By gasifying these materials into syngas – a mix of hydrogen and carbon monoxide – then converting it into hydrocarbons, FT offers the potential to turn waste into wealth. However, its high capital costs and complex logistics make it challenging to scale quickly.
Emerging technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) are generating buzz. ATJ uses biomass-derived alcohols, such as ethanol or butanol, as its starting point, while PtL harnesses renewable electricity to combine hydrogen from water with captured CO₂ to create synthetic hydrocarbons. While these methods offer enormous promise – PtL in particular could achieve near-zero emissions – their cost and nascent development keep them from dominating the current SAF landscape.
A Growing Industry
Today, SAF remains a niche player in the energy market. Global production in 2023 was estimated at just 450 million liters (119 million gallons) – a tiny fraction of the 400 billion litres of jet fuel consumed annually. However, this small figure belies the rapid momentum building behind the scenes.
Leading the charge are producers like Neste, whose HEFA-based SAF is refined in facilities in Finland, the Netherlands, and Singapore. World Energy, based in California, has made a name for itself as one of the largest SAF producers in North America, while France’s TotalEnergies has expanded its SAF operations using advanced refining technologies.
Regionally, Europe leads SAF production, buoyed by progressive policies and financial incentives. The United States, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act and other federal incentives, is quickly catching up. Even Asia, with investments in Japan and Singapore, is emerging as a serious contender in the SAF market.
Scaling Up for a Sustainable Future
The numbers tell a clear story: today’s SAF production levels are nowhere near what’s needed to meet the industry’s climate goals. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that aviation will require 450 billion litres (119 billion gallons) of SAF annually by 2050 to achieve net-zero emissions. To put this into perspective, SAF production will need to grow a thousandfold from today’s levels over the next three decades.
There’s optimism, though. By 2025, production could hit 7-8 billion litres, with a further leap to 30 billion litres by 2030. Policy support will be crucial to achieving these targets. Europe’s ReFuelEU initiative, which mandates increasing SAF blends, and U.S. tax credits are already incentivising investment in refining capacity and feedstock innovation.
Why Is SAF So Expensive?
For all its promise, SAF’s high cost is a significant hurdle. Current prices hover around $2.50 to $3.50 per liter, several times the price of conventional jet fuel at $0.80 to $1.20 per liter.
The reasons are clear: producing SAF is complex, and feedstocks are limited. HEFA, the cheapest pathway, relies on waste oils and fats, which are themselves scarce and in demand for other industries. More advanced methods like FT and PtL involve costly infrastructure and technologies that are still in their infancy.
However, economies of scale and technological breakthroughs could change the cost equation. By 2030, industry experts predict SAF prices could fall significantly. HEFA-based fuels might drop to $0.80 – $1.20 per liter, while more complex methods like PtL could see costs fall to $2.50 – $4.00 per liter, thanks to cheaper renewable electricity and improved carbon capture methods.
The Road Ahead
Despite its challenges, SAF offers a clear pathway for aviation to cut its carbon footprint. Airlines are already embracing it – major carriers like Delta, United, and Lufthansa have committed to using increasing amounts of SAF in their operations. Governments are stepping up too, offering subsidies, mandating SAF use, and funding research into feedstock and refining technologies.
The industry still faces hard questions: Can feedstocks keep up with demand? Will prices ever rival fossil fuels? And can SAF achieve its full potential before climate deadlines loom too close? While no one can say for certain, one thing is clear: SAF is no longer a theoretical solution. It’s here, it’s growing, and its reshaping aviation.
With continued investment and innovation, we may soon look back on these years as the turning point when flight finally became sustainable.
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