Please note the political opinions expressed below are those of the author himself, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of JP Fund Services AS.
“In God we trust, everyone else pays cash.” It’s an old trader’s maxim, but watching the spectacle in Egypt recently made me wonder if we’re witnessing an exception to that rule.
World leaders – rich, poor, brilliant, not-so-brilliant – lined up to get their photo opportunity with Donald Trump. Some of them had been openly critical not long ago. Take the UK’s Keir Starmer, who reportedly called around to secure his invitation. These weren’t casual meetups. These were calculated moves by people who recognize where power currently sits.
So, what does any of this have to do with our portfolios?
Follow the Money, Follow the Power
Everything, actually. We’re the ones who keep the global economy liquid. Our capital – whether we’re making money or losing it – funds innovation, infrastructure, and growth. Every trade we make, every position we take, adds fuel to the economic engine.
For years now, we’ve dealt with politicians who seem to view investment activity as something suspicious, something to be taxed and regulated into submission. We take the risks. We pay the taxes – more than our fair share, frankly. And too often, we get treated like we’re the problem.
But something’s different now. Trump operates in a way we haven’t seen in a while from a world leader. He’s not taking a salary. He’s actually worth less now than when he started. And love him or hate him, when he says he’ll do something, it tends to happen.
Actions Over Words
Energy prices are dropping. Pension funds have seen solid gains – real money in real retirement accounts. Conflicts are being de-escalated. These were campaign promises that are actually materializing into policy results.
Sure, his style grates on people. He’s blunt, he’s polarizing, and his delivery can be rough around the edges. But here’s what matters to us: follow-through. When a leader does what they say they’ll do, markets can price that in. Predictability has value.
What a Libertarian Presidency Means for Investors
Trump’s instincts are fundamentally libertarian. More individual freedom, less government interference, lighter regulatory touch. For people in our business, that’s generally good news.
What’s more interesting is watching other world leaders pivot toward that approach. If they’re lining up to be photographed with him, presumably they’re paying attention to what’s working. Maybe – just maybe – we’re seeing the beginning of a shift away from the high-tax, high-regulation, high-debt trajectory that’s dominated policy in the West for decades.
If that happens, if even a fraction of these leaders follow through, it could reshape the investment landscape significantly.
Reading the Market Tea Leaves
Energy:
I expect prices to stay relatively low. We’ll get spikes, sure, but the overall trend during this presidency should favor lower energy costs.
The Dollar:
It’s been weak, but that might be bottoming. Countries that resist this shift will likely pay for it in currency depreciation, especially in Europe where debt loads are already unsustainable and the EU structure adds another layer of complexity.
Gold:
Could we hit $6,000 this time? Maybe. But as a contrarian, I’m getting that familiar itch to start taking profits on rallies. It’s been a great ride, but nothing goes up forever.
Oil:
Contrarian thinking again – I’m actually eyeing oil on dips. Not quite ready to pull the trigger, but I’m watching.
Equities:
Markets feel stretched. There might be more juice left, but I’m not putting fresh capital to work at these levels. I’m not bearish exactly, just cautious.
The Bottom Line
The world’s changing direction. Not everyone will benefit immediately. Socialist-leaning governments, countries addicted to high spending, regions locked into unsustainable debt – they’re going to have a rough adjustment period.
But as they watch what’s working, as they see the results, adaptation becomes more likely. And while Trump maintains this position of strength, our industry has room to run.
I’m not promising easy money or straight-line gains. Markets don’t work that way. But we’re entering what looks like a more favorable environment for active traders and strategic investors. The tailwinds are shifting in our direction.
For those of us willing to stay nimble, read the signals, and position accordingly, there’s real opportunity ahead. The question isn’t whether change is coming – it’s whether we’re positioned to profit from it.
That’s the game we’re in. And right now, it’s looking like our kind of game.
The post A Shift in the Wind: What Recent Events Mean for Markets first appeared on JP Fund Services.
The post A Shift in the Wind: What Recent Events Mean for Markets appeared first on JP Fund Services.
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