The UK’s renewable energy sector is currently grappling with a significant bottleneck: over 1,100 wind, solar, and other green energy projects are delayed due to long grid connection wait times. The UK’s goal to quintuple solar power to 70 GW by 2035 is a challenge given that currently, it is estimated that 15 GW of grid connection capacity is available.
The long wait times are causing an impact by, blocking future renewable projects from being developed. Furthermore, the pipeline of contracted projects waiting for connections across England and Wales has ballooned to a combined 176 GW. The National Grid is bound by the terms of its licence to manage connection requests on a ‘first come, first served’ basis, limiting its ability to bring forward projects that are ready to proceed.
Critics have specifically pointed the finger at the energy networks like National Grid, regulator Ofgem, and speculative “zombie projects” holding connection queue spots but never getting built. These delays are threatening the country’s progress toward its net-zero carbon targets by 2050 and hindering its ability to produce 100% zero-carbon electricity by 2035. The projects span across Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and the situation is exacerbated by an overburdened grid infrastructure. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the situation.
Regional Breakdown of the 1,100 Delayed Projects
1. Scotland
Scotland plays a vital role in the UK’s renewable energy ambitions, particularly with wind energy. Around 40% of the UK’s wind capacity is generated here. However, grid delays have hampered many new projects, especially in the Highlands and offshore areas. A significant proportion of Scotland’s projects—particularly offshore wind farms—are facing connection delays into the 2030s.
- Type of Energy: Predominantly wind (both onshore and offshore), some hydroelectric and solar.
- Capacity Delayed: Several gigawatts (GW) are in the queue, but precise MW breakdown for individual projects is often unclear.
- Grid Connection Delays: Some projects are waiting up to 8-10 years for grid connection.
2. England
England has a growing portfolio of solar projects, complemented by onshore wind and energy storage systems. The southeast and southwest regions, where solar irradiation is stronger, are particularly affected by delays.
- Type of Energy: Solar, onshore wind, energy storage.
- Capacity Delayed: Multiple projects totalling hundreds of megawatts (MW).
- Grid Connection Delays: Many projects have connection dates ranging from 2028 to 2035, with some solar farms ready for construction but unable to generate power until connected.
3. Wales
Wales, with its potential for both onshore and offshore wind, has several projects in limbo. The Welsh government has also been pushing for tidal and marine energy projects, adding to the diversity of its green energy sector.
- Type of Energy: Onshore wind, solar, and emerging tidal energy.
- Capacity Delayed: Up to several hundred MW.
- Grid Connection Delays: Delays stretch into late 2020s and early 2030s, particularly for larger wind farms.
4. Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland has fewer projects compared to other parts of the UK, but grid capacity remains a major issue. The region has strong wind resources but limited infrastructure to connect these projects to the UK-wide grid.
- Type of Energy: Predominantly wind, with some smaller solar projects.
- Capacity Delayed: Around a few hundred MW.
- Grid Connection Delays: Connection dates range from late 2020s to 2035.
Total Capacity of Delayed Projects
The overall capacity of these delayed projects is staggering. It is estimated that up to 95 GW of renewable energy capacity is stuck in the queue, unable to connect to the grid. This includes both wind and solar energy, as well as emerging technologies such as tidal and battery storage. The bulk of the delays are affecting wind farms (onshore and offshore), with solar farms also significantly impacted.
Costs and Resources Needed to Upgrade the UK Grid
The primary reason for these delays is the UK’s outdated grid infrastructure, which was originally built to serve a small number of large fossil fuel plants rather than a multitude of renewable sources. Modernising and expanding the grid to accommodate new energy sources is crucial but comes with substantial costs and resources.
- Estimated Investment Needed: Up to £54 billion is needed over the next decade to upgrade the grid and reduce waiting times.
- Major Requirements:
- New Substations: To handle the increased load from renewable projects.
- Upgraded Transmission Lines: Existing lines are often not sufficient for carrying electricity generated by remote offshore wind farms.
- Energy Storage Solutions: These will help smooth out supply fluctuations from intermittent sources like solar and wind.
National Grid has been given approval to raise £20 billion through customer bills over the next 40 years to fund these upgrades
National Grid’s Five-Point Plan to Cut Waiting Times
In response to the growing crisis, National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) introduced a five-point plan in May 2023 aimed at reducing the grid connection backlog. The plan promises to speed up connection times for 70% of projects scheduled beyond 2026 by up to 10 years. Here’s an overview of the plan:
- Flexible Connection Offers: National Grid will allow some projects to connect earlier on a more flexible basis, even if full capacity isn’t immediately available.
- Queue Management Improvements: A restructured queuing system will prioritise more “shovel-ready” projects, freeing up capacity for those closest to completion.
- Contract Reviews: Projects that are unlikely to proceed will be encouraged to leave the queue, opening up space for viable projects.
- Grid Reinforcement Prioritisation: Key upgrades to transmission and distribution networks will be fast-tracked, ensuring that bottlenecks are cleared more efficiently.
- Digitalisation of the Connections Process: Moving to a more data-driven system, National Grid aims to streamline the application and connection process by using advanced monitoring tools and software platforms (RPS Group & PV Tech).
The Path Forward
The UK’s renewable energy future is heavily dependent on solving the grid connection crisis. With 1,100 projects stalled and over 95 GW of capacity hanging in the balance, swift action is needed. The National Grid’s five-point plan is a positive step, but without substantial investment and reform, the UK risks falling behind its ambitious carbon reduction targets. Upgrading the grid to handle a diverse and distributed range of renewable energy sources is critical for unlocking the full potential of wind, solar, and emerging technologies like tidal energy. This unlocking will enable green hydrogen production to meet its objectives for producing, the UK government’s new Energy Security Strategy, where they announced in April 2022 an ambition for up to 10GW of hydrogen production capacity by 2030 — double the previous target unveiled under its national hydrogen strategy in August 2021. This will enable Haush to meet its goal of producing 320MW of green hydrogen by 2028
By accelerating grid upgrades, embracing flexibility markets, and prioritising projects that are closer to fruition and removing zombie projects, the UK can reduce its renewable energy bottleneck and move towards a greener, more sustainable future.
Sources: Planning, Building & Construction Today and PV Tech
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