The Path to 70% Sustainable Aviation Fuel by 2050
The European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation marks a transformative shift in aviation fuel policy. In a bid to decarbonise air transport, the EU mandates a minimum share of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in jet fuel supplied at EU airports, starting at 2% in 2025 and rising incrementally to 70% by 2050. This initiative is aligned with RED II, ICAO CORSIA, and ASTM certification standards, placing strict sustainability and emissions criteria on SAF production and use.
This Haush article provides a detailed projection of SAF demand in metric tonnes (MT) across the key milestone years and examines whether Europe has sufficient feedstock availability to meet these mandates.
SAF Demand Projections (MT)
Assuming aviation fuel demand in the EU remains relatively constant at 46–47.4 million tonnes (MT) per year, the SAF requirement by percentage and mass is projected as follows:
|
Year
|
SAF Mandate
|
Estimated SAF Required (MT)
|
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2% | 0.95 million tonnes |
| 2030 | 6% | 2.84 million tonnes |
| 2040 | 32% | 14.72 million tonnes |
| 2050 | 70% | 32.2 million tonnes |
Can Europe Meet This Demand? Feedstock Analysis
SAF production relies on a variety of feedstocks, each subject to availability, regulatory acceptance, and technological maturity. Here’s how Europe fares:
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1. Used Cooking Oils & Animal Fats (HEFA pathway)
- Pros: Readily used in today’s SAF production.
- Cons: Limited domestic supply. Imports are likely needed.
- Conclusion: Will help meet 2025 targets but insufficient for long-term scaling.
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2. Agricultural & Forestry Residues (e.g., lignocellulosic biomass)
- Pros: Abundant in Europe; high sustainability score.
- Cons: Requires advanced pathways (e.g., FT, AtJ) that are not yet at scale.
- Conclusion: Key for 2030 and beyond but needs rapid technological ramp-up.
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3. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
- Pros: Potentially large supply from urban centres.
- Cons: Technically and economically challenging to convert; contamination risks.
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Conclusion: Viable with investment in sorting and processing infrastructure.
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4. Power-to-Liquid (PtL) Fuels
- Pros: Net-zero potential; leverages CO₂ capture and renewable electricity.
- Cons: Cost-intensive; currently nascent in Europe.
- Conclusion: Essential for long-term decarbonisation and 2040–2050 targets.
Capacity vs Demand Gap
- Technology acceleration in FT, AtJ and PtL pathways.
- Investment in biorefineries and electrofuels infrastructure.
- Policy instruments like subsidies, contracts for difference (CfDs), and faster permitting.
- Efficient feedstock mobilisation, including rural logistics and waste valorisation.
Final Word
While Europe is not currently on track to meet ReFuelEU’s SAF targets through domestic feedstocks alone, success is possible with concerted action across industry, policy, and technology. The aviation sector’s decarbonisation depends on it, and so does Europe’s net-zero ambition.
The post ReFuelEU Aviation: Europe’s SAF Demand & Feedstock Feasibility first appeared on Haush.