As the UK accelerates its efforts to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the transport sector, responsible for approximately 27% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, stands as a critical area for decarbonisation.
Green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy, is emerging as a key solution for hard-to-electrify segments of the transport sector, particularly in heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), public transport, marine, aviation, and rail. This article examines the current landscape, regulatory incentives, and the projected transition to green hydrogen in these transport modes by 2030.
Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs)
The UK has approximately 493,600 registered HGVs, most of which run on diesel, contributing significantly to the country’s carbon emissions. Green hydrogen presents a viable alternative, especially for long-haul transport where battery-electric options are less practical due to range and charging constraints.
- Regulatory Incentives: The UK government has committed to banning the sale of new diesel and petrol-heavy vehicles by 2040. The “Transport Decarbonisation Plan” outlines incentives such as grants for hydrogen refuelling infrastructure and research funding for hydrogen fuel cell technology development.
- Transition Estimates: By 2030, it is estimated that around 10% to 15% of HGVs, roughly 50,000 to 75,000 vehicles, could transition to green hydrogen, contingent on the expansion of refuelling infrastructure and the availability of hydrogen at competitive prices.
Light Goods Vehicles (LGVs)
There are over 4 million light goods vehicles (LGVs) in the UK, primarily used for last-mile delivery and services. While many are expected to transition to electric power due to the shorter-range requirements, hydrogen-powered LGVs could play a role in specific use cases, particularly where payload and range are critical.
- Regulatory Incentives: The UK government has set a 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans, with a partial exemption for hybrid vehicles until 2035. Incentives include grants for hydrogen vehicle purchases and a push for hydrogen refuelling stations in urban areas.
- Transition Estimates: The transition to green hydrogen for LGVs is expected to be limited, with perhaps 2% to 5% of the fleet—equating to around 80,000 to 200,000 vehicles—running on hydrogen by 2030. The majority will likely opt for battery-electric power, driven by cost and infrastructure availability.
Public Transport (Buses)
The UK’s public bus fleet consists of about 35,000 vehicles. Hydrogen buses are particularly promising for routes requiring high range and quick refuelling, where battery-electric buses may face limitations.
- Regulatory Incentives: The UK government’s “Bus Back Better” strategy and the Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas (ZEBRA) scheme are pushing for zero-emission public transport, with specific funding allocated for hydrogen bus deployment.
- Transition Estimates: By 2030, it is projected that approximately 25% to 30% of the UK bus fleet—around 8,750 to 10,500 buses—could be hydrogen-powered, supported by dedicated hydrogen refuelling infrastructure and government subsidies.
Back-to-Base Vehicles
Back-to-base vehicles, including refuse trucks and utility fleets, are well-suited for hydrogen transition due to their predictable routes and central refuelling capability. The UK has thousands of these vehicles, especially within local government fleets.
- Regulatory Incentives: Government support includes grants for fleet operators to transition to zero-emission vehicles and funding for localised hydrogen production and refuelling stations, particularly for municipal fleets.
- Transition Estimates: By 2030, up to 20% of these vehicles could be powered by hydrogen, translating to about 5,000 to 10,000 vehicles, depending on the pace of infrastructure roll-out and fuel costs.
Marine Transport
The UK’s maritime sector, encompassing both coastal shipping and larger international vessels, is responsible for significant carbon emissions. Green hydrogen and its derivative, ammonia, are considered potential fuels for decarbonizing this sector.
- Regulatory Incentives: The UK’s Clean Maritime Plan aims to have zero-emission vessels operating commercially by 2025 and mandates that all new vessels ordered from 2025 be designed with zero-emission technologies in mind. This includes hydrogen fuel cells and ammonia-powered engines.
- Transition Estimates: By 2030, it is anticipated that up to 10% of the UK’s coastal shipping fleet could transition to hydrogen or ammonia, with larger-scale adoption in international shipping likely post-2030.
Aviation
Decarbonising aviation is particularly challenging, but hydrogen is gaining traction as a long-term solution, either through direct hydrogen fuel cells or synthetic fuels derived from green hydrogen.
- Regulatory Incentives: The UK government has initiated the Jet Zero Council, focusing on the development of zero-emission aviation technologies, including hydrogen. Additional incentives include funding for R&D and infrastructure development at key airports.
- Transition Estimates: Given the technological and infrastructural challenges, significant hydrogen adoption in aviation is expected to be limited by 2030. However, early demonstrations and small-scale deployments, particularly in regional and short-haul flights, could see around 1% to 2% of the UK’s aircraft fleet using hydrogen-based fuels.
Rail
While much of the UK’s rail network is electrified, non-electrified lines, particularly in rural areas, are still dependent on diesel. Hydrogen trains, which are already being trialled, offer a promising solution for these routes.
- Regulatory Incentives: The UK government’s commitment to removing all diesel-only trains by 2040 includes significant investment in hydrogen-powered rail technology, with the first hydrogen trains expected to be operational by the mid-2020s.
- Transition Estimates: By 2030, it is estimated that around 5% to 10% of non-electrified routes could be serviced by hydrogen trains, which translates to around 50 to 100 trains.
Meeting Demand and Infrastructure Challenges
The transition to green hydrogen across these sectors will require significant investments in production capacity, distribution infrastructure, and refueling stations. The UK aims to have 5 GW of low-carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030, but the actual demand from the transport sector could surpass this if hydrogen adoption accelerates.
Supply vs. Demand
Meeting the projected demand for green hydrogen by 2030 will be challenging. While the UK’s hydrogen strategy is robust, the pace of infrastructure deployment—particularly in refuelling stations and production facilities—will be a critical factor. The expected vehicle adoption rates suggest that, without sufficient infrastructure, there could be bottlenecks in hydrogen supply, particularly for HGVs and public transport.
Estimated Daily Hydrogen Demand by 2030
| Sector | Vehicles/Vessels/Trains | Daily Hydrogen Demand (kg/day) |
| HGVs | 50,000 – 75,000 | 1,500,000 – 2,250,000 |
| LGVs | 80,000 – 200,000 | 240,000 – 600,000 |
| Public Transport (Buses) | 8,750 – 10,500 | 196,875 – 236,250 |
| Back-to-Base Vehicles | 5,000 – 10,000 | 50,000 – 100,000 |
| Marine Transport | 50 | 50,000 |
| Aviation | 20 | 10,000 |
| Rail | 50 – 100 | 3,750 – 7,500 |
Total Estimated Daily Hydrogen Demand:
- Low Estimate: 2,050,625 kg/day (2,051 metric tonnes/day)
- High Estimate: 3,253,750 kg/day (3,254 metric tonnes/day)
As mentioned in a previous article, by 2030, the estimated total green hydrogen production in the UK could reach 360,000 – 1 million kg/day, well below this estimated demand.
The UK’s transition to green hydrogen in the transport sector is an ambitious but necessary step towards achieving net-zero emissions. By 2030, a significant portion of HGVs, public transport, and specific marine and rail segments are expected to adopt hydrogen as a primary fuel source alongside BEV’s and green fuels.
However, realising this vision will require overcoming substantial challenges in infrastructure development and ensuring that the hydrogen supply can meet the burgeoning demand. With continued government support and industry innovation, the UK could establish itself as a leader in the global green hydrogen economy.
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